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As a result, many countries will have to turn to other renewable sources of energy, such as solar power, wind, hydroelectricity, and biofuels. Nuclear energy and unconventional fossil fuels like oil sands will also make a significant energy contribution. |
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However, using more energy inevitably means emitting more greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) at a time when climate change has become a critical global issue. Governments and organizations will have to find means of regulating air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, through new technologies that power buildings and vehicles with increased energy efficiency.
Indeed, the distant future looks bright, but much depends on how we get there. Jeroen van der Veer, Chief Executive of Royal Dutch Shell believes that taking a more cautious approach, which he terms the Blueprints scenario, will provide the best balance between economy, energy, and the environment. This is where numerous coalitions emerge to take on the challenges of economic development, energy security, and environmental pollution, through cross-border cooperation. Though the start may be more disorderly, there can be much technological innovation at the local level. Major cities can explore working with industries to reduce local emissions, by capturing and storing existing CO2. National governments can introduce efficiency standards, taxes, and other policy instruments to improve the environmental performance of buildings, vehicles, and transport fuels.
For a second opinion, Royal Dutch Shell appealed to climate change calculations made at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. These calculations indicate that a Blueprints world results in the least amount of climate change, provided that emissions of other major greenhouse gases are similarly reduced.
However, the Blueprints scenario will only be realized with hard work. According to the Blueprints roadmap, CO2 has to be captured at 90% of all coal- and gas-fired power plants in developed countries by 2050. As CO2 capture and storage adds costs and yields no revenues, government support is needed to make this happen quickly on a scale large enough to affect global emissions. One way is to allow companies to earn carbon credits for the CO2 they capture and store. Policymakers will also have to agree on a global approach to emissions trading, and actively promote energy efficiency and new technology in four areas: heat and power generation, industry, transport, and buildings.
Although much effort will be required, Blueprints offers the world the best chance of reaching a sustainable energy future unscathed, so Van der Veer believes that we should continue to explore this route with ingenuity and persistence.
The world faces a long voyage before it reaches a low-carbon energy system. Companies can suggest possible routes to get there, but governments are in the driver’s seat, where they determine whether we should prepare for bitter competition or a true team effort.
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